Despite decades of legislation meant to boost children’s reading levels, literacy scores have remained relatively stagnant across the U.S. over the past 30 years.
Educators, policymakers and parents were genuinely excited in the late 2010s, when three Southern states – Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana – appeared to buck the literacy trend. All three of these states, which have long lagged in literacy scores, made notable gains in fourth grade reading scores from 2013 to 2024, as measured by the National Assessment of Educational Progress, or NAEP.
We are researchers in literacy and learning. Two of us are at the University of Alabama and Mercer University, where we educate elementary teachers. The other two work at Temple University, where we research early language and the science of learning. We all study how children develop as readers and how teaching styles and policies shape that development.
Some observers and scholars have called Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana’s reading gains the “Southern surge” and say this progress shows that recent literacy reforms are working.
A straightforward explanation has taken hold: As more schools spent additional time on phonics and implemented other “science of reading” reforms, students became stronger readers.
This narrative accurately captures some of the available evidence. But it also simplifies a complex set of patterns in literacy data, and it limits the discussion that policymakers should have.
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Reading scores under pressure
Since the early 2000s, new federal and state policies have placed pressure on schools to improve students’ reading outcomes. The 2001 No Child Left Behind Act required all states to track and report literacy testing results. This law, which the Obama administration replaced in 2015 with the Every Student Succeeds Act, mandated annual testing in reading and math for students in third through eighth grades.
Many schools narrowed their curriculum to try to boost their students’ reading scores. They cut time for science, social studies, art and recess to focus on reading and math. Students entering school in the early 2000s – the first classes fully exposed to No Child Left Behind’s requirements – spent more time on reading instruction than any previous generation.
But sustained reading gains still didn’t follow.
The NAEP is often called the nation’s report card. It is the only federally administered test that allows meaningful comparisons in reading levels across states.
The NAEP found that fourth grade reading scores nationwide increased modestly beginning in 2005. They peaked around 2017 and have declined since.
But there’s a complication in how those scores are interpreted. NAEP’s mid-level score, called “proficient,” does not mean a student is reading at grade level – it reflects a high standard that most students do not reach. In the case of fourth grade readers, it means they can recognize a text’s structure and organization, explain how characters influence others and make other complex observations. Students can also receive a lower “basic” score, or a higher “advanced” one.
Alabama’s example illustrates the gap that can emerge between NAEP test results and a state’s assessments.
The state’s 2025 assessments show that 81% to 88% of second and third graders were reading “on grade level.” But the 2024 NAEP shows only about 30% of Alabama fourth graders – the youngest grade the NAEP measures for literacy – were “proficient” at reading.
Both numbers can be accurate. They reflect different definitions and measurement systems.
Understanding reading gains in the South
Despite differences in measuring reading, a small number of states have shown clear improvement over the past decade, according to the NAEP.
Mississippi has shown the strongest gains. In 2013, it was 49th out of all 50 states when it came to ranking fourth grade reading scores. In 2024, Mississippi climbed to ninth in fourth grade reading.
Mississippi’s progress predates recent national attention to the science of reading – meaning, the body of research on reading – suggesting its gains cannot be attributed solely to the current wave of related reforms.
In 2013, Mississippi passed the Literacy-Based Promotion Act, which combined early reading screening, teacher training, literacy coaching and additional support. Research shows that the policy could account for roughly five points of reading gains, on average. These gains reflect long-term, system-wide efforts rather than a rapid shift tied to a single policy change.
At the middle school level, however, the pattern in Mississippi looks different.
Improvements in fourth grade reading have not translated into similar gains in eighth grade reading. Early improvements in children’s ability to decode words do not necessarily lead to success with more complex texts that require additional vocabulary and background knowledge.
This gap does not negate Mississippi’s progress, but it does raise questions about what the next decade of work needs to look like.
Louisiana’s reading score trajectory is more modest. Recent NAEP scores for fourth grade students in Louisiana are similar to those from the mid-2010s – a rebound to a prior level.
While Louisiana ranked 50th in fourth grade reading in 2019, it rose to 38th in 2024.
A 32-point gap between Black and white students’ average fourth grade reading scores persists in 2024 data, nearly unchanged from the late 1990s. In this case, some reading progress happened. Yet the underlying inequities between students did not shift.
Alabama’s results illustrate a third pattern: relative stability in fourth grade reading scores during a period of national decline. The state ranked 35th in fourth grade NAEP reading in 2013 and remains in a similar position in 2024, showing little change.
The state’s average NAEP score for fourth grade students shifted by a single point between 2019 and 2024 – not a surge, but a state holding its ground while others fell.
Meanwhile, chronic absenteeism has fallen in Alabama since 2019. As research links attendance to academic achievement, it makes it difficult to attribute the state’s small shift in reading scores to any single factor.
Across all three states, substantial gaps between Black and white students’ reading scores persist on NAEP scoring.
The same pattern extends nationally to Hispanic students, poor students and other groups. This shows that fourth grade students’ reading gains have not been accompanied by comparable reductions in social, racial and ethnic inequities.
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A more complicated story
Still, parts of the Southern surge in reading is genuinely encouraging. It is also the latest chapter in a long story.
Mississippi’s gains, for example, came alongside coaching, professional development and early intervention.
Louisiana’s reading recovery unfolded alongside a 34% increase in education funding over the past decade.
Test score changes reflect a combination of policy decisions, classroom practices and broader conditions, often unfolding over many years. Reading is hard to teach, hard to sustain and not connected to any one policy shift.
