For many residents in the Northern Hemisphere, the advent of the summer season has always signalled travel. Travel with family, travel with friends, adventure travel, sightseeing travel, travel by automobile, travel by train, travel by air.
Air travel for Canadians this summer is looking to be one of the most turbulent seasons in decades, squeezed by a U.S. travel boycott that began in early 2025 and a global aviation fuel crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
What might air travel this summer look like, and what should passengers expect when making travel plans?
Canadians are still boycotting the U.S.
Since early 2025, Canadians have shunned travel to the United States in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and repeated remarks about Canada becoming the “51st state.”
Canadian return trips from the U.S. are down 32 per cent compared to March 2024, according to Statistics Canada. Canadians instead preferred domestic or other international travel locations.
The air travel industry has taken notice. Canadian airlines cut capacity to the U.S. by 10 per cent in the first quarter, according to aviation data firm OAG. Air Transat even plans to end all its U.S. flights by June.
Air Canada expanded flights to and from Mexico and has introduced new air routes. WestJet has also announced new domestic routes for the summer, along with adding additional flights between Eastern and Western Canada.
To characterize these plans as aggressive would be an understatement.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi
The ongoing fuel crisis
On Feb. 27, the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran began. Iran’s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil normally moves — has sent aviation fuel prices soaring, affecting supplies destined for Asia and Europe.
Read more:
Middle East conflict is pushing oil prices higher — and most Canadians will feel the costs
Since the war began, jet fuel prices have risen nearly 70 per cent, according to the Platts Global Jet Fuel Index. Air carriers have been forced to adjust their capacity plans and increase airfares.
Several global regions are facing imminent shortages of aviation fuel. Several Asian and Western European countries have begun to ration fuel products such as gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel as local reserves dwindle.
Some carriers have begun to implement capacity reductions in response to rationing measures, impacting both aircraft and staff levels.
Spirit’s collapse as a warning
Financial turmoil has now become the the subject of heated conversation in airline boardrooms, with any number of initiatives being considered to conserve liquidity in an environment that threatens the survival of many carriers.
The clearest illustration of that pressure came May 2 when Spirit Airlines shut down. Spirit ranked eighth among U.S. airlines by seats offered in 2025. Its closure has left roughly 17,000 employees without jobs and stranded tens of thousands of passengers who held tickets for future travel.
U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the airline “was in dire straits long before the war with Iran,” but the fuel price spike removed any remaining margin for survival. Spirit Airlines CEO Dave Davis told The Wall Street Journal the airline’s recovery plan would have succeeded if not for the Iran war and soaring fuel prices.
Read more:
As war raises oil prices, households pay while energy companies profit
Spirit’s exit will remove one of the few remaining ultra-low-cost options for American travellers, and could push fares higher across the industry.
Its closure has brought the aviation fuel cost crisis into immediate focus with both regulators and the travelling public. Are other U.S. carriers at risk of the same fate as Spirit? Are other airlines globally at risk as well?
(Mike Stocker/South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP)
What this means for summer 2026 travel
For Canadians planning summer travel, the picture divides roughly along domestic and international lines.
Airlines have increased fares to recover fuel cost increases, cut services on routes that have become unprofitable and begun redrawing growth schedules to reflect geopolitical uncertainties.
For travellers contemplating international travel this summer, airfares have increased substantially. Domestic Canadian fares are also higher than 2025 levels, though the increase is more modest.
Demand on domestic routes has remained strong, and carriers have given no indication of softening. Competition among carriers — a key driver of lower airfares — has been muted at best, with airlines focused on profitability and, in some cases, survival.
Like all such crises, this aviation fuel crisis will eventually end. The question of when is the subject of debate and consternation. The International Air Transport Association has noted that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen, recovering normal jet fuel supply could take months.
For travellers still finalizing summer plans, the central question is how much risk they can tolerate. Further capacity cuts are possible if not likely, and passengers will get minimal notice if flights are cancelled.
Those who want a straightforward, low-stress trip would do well to look closer to home and stick to domestic flights. Those with more flexibility and appetite for uncertainty will find that international travel this summer will be one for the record books.
