Andy Burnham has just won what might be the most consequential byelection in British political history. His win clears the way for him to enter parliament as a Labour MP and challenge Sir Keir Starmer to become prime minister of the United Kingdom.
But this win isn’t just about filling a constituency vacancy with another MP to populate the lobbies at Westminster. Nor is it even only about a challenge to Starmer’s leadership – although that is now on the cards.
Burnham believes he has the recipe to revitalise the Labour Party, British politics and hence the UK itself. That recipe has two main ingredients: hope and locality.
But first, who is Andy Burnham, and why does his election to a constituency in Lancashire matter so much to the future of British politics?
Rise of the ‘king of the north’
Burnham’s job prior to his election to parliament was mayor of Greater Manchester. His record as a Labour mayor of this important city gave solace to many Labour supporters during the years of Conservative government – and during Starmer’s turgid leadership.
To some, Burnham is the so-called “king of the north”. This nickname came from his high profile in the distinct politics of the north-west of England.
In this sense, he was always something of a pretender to the Labour leadership. Starmer knew this too, and so short-sightedly barred Burnham from running in a byelection in March. Labour’s poor performance at [local elections in England in May], as well as in Scotland and Wales, precipitated a leadership crisis.
One element of this, organised by Burnham’s many backers within the Labour party, was for the sitting Labour MP in the constituency of Makerfield near Manchester to stand down. This allowed Burnham to contest the byelection and take his place at Westminster – and then challenge for the prime minister’s position.
Burnham’s first major strength: hope
Hope was a notable feature of Burnham’s victory speech. This can be interpreted in two ways. The first is for the people of Makerfield, and small town constituencies like it, who feel forgotten by the mainstream parties. The UK has suffered the consequences of austerity measures since 2010, and many small towns in northern England like those in the Makerfield constituency have borne the brunt.
The other is for Labour members and supporters who now feel there may be a way to stem the rise of the radical-right populist party Reform UK. This contest between Labour and Reform in the north of England will shape the outcome of the next general election scheduled for 2029. Burnham’s victory gives beleaguered Labour activists hope.
The way to defeat Reform is not to copy their policies and rhetoric, as Starmer tried with his infamous “Island of Strangers” speech in 2025. Burnham knows that delivering local services that make an immediate improvement to people’s lives will be key to restoring faith in the Labour government. This is why his experience of integrating the transport system in Manchester is seen as a model for what could be done at the national level. Some call this approach to politics and policy “Manchester-ism”
Adam Vaughan/EPA/AAP
But even though it has at least two well-known rival football clubs, governing Manchester is surely easier than governing the UK.
Starmer knew that delivering change – Labour’s election slogan in 2024 – was what the electorate wanted and needed. But change is easier said than done. Starmer’s emphasis on “mission-driven government” failed to excite the political imagination or deliver the kind of material improvement the electorate was yearning for. This managerialism was not up to the political challenges of the mid-2020s.
One of these challenges is that the UK electorate has changed over the past ten years. One often repeated observation is that British politics has fragmented when compared to its post-second world war two-party heyday. That fragmentation became more obvious during and after Brexit, when new political loyalties that did not conform to class-based politics took firm root.
In this way, British politics has shifted from a broadly two-party system into a seven-party system, across the four nations of the UK. Framing this diversity are two blocs – progressive and conservative. Competition within these blocs is as pronounced as between them. This means a leader has great difficulty satisfying the sometimes competing demands of this fragmented political terrain.
Burnham’s second major strength: locality
Burnham’s emphasis on hope is his speech is in contrast to many poeple’s experience of locality, the second ingredient of Burnham’s recipe for renewal.
This emphasis seeks to overcome the socio-economic disparity between London and the rest of England. This disparity is especially notable in the small towns of the northern England and England’s coastal regions.
When Burnham said his constituency of Makerfield would not be a stepping stone to Westminster but rather a touchstone for British politics, he meant to keep such places in mind when devising national policy. The intention is to make politics work for those in the more deprived areas of the UK.
Like one of those overly long streaming dramas which assume that people are double screening whilst “watching”, I am going to recap something. In a piece for The Conversation last month, I said Britain’s Labour Party “will need a change of philosophy as much as a change of leader to overcome the deep structural problems facing all centrist parties in liberal democracies”.
Whether Burnham’s “Manchester-ism” amounts to a political philosophy is debatable. It is firmly within the managerial style and utilitarian tradition of the modern Labour Party. But the focus on a leader from the electoral battleground of northern England will start to make voters in that part of Britain feel heard.
Starmer’s strongest argument now that Burnham has a seat in parliament is that change takes time and his leadership should be given longer to bear fruit. There is truth in this.
But time is a scarce commodity in politics today. There will be challengers other than Burnham when the time comes It’s likely that Burnham’s team will want to harness the momentum of this victory and mount a challenge before parliament breaks for the its summer recess at the end of July.
The “king of the north” is now odds-on favourite to take the keys to Downing Street whenever the leadership challenge is made.
