Three further federal polls have been released since Monday’s article, for a total of five polls since Sunday.
The latest polls show a more modest drop for the combined One Nation and Coalition vote than Newspoll and Redbridge. The right vote is down 1.5–2 points in these three polls, compared to 3–4 points in the earlier polls.
There’s a big contrast between YouGov (One Nation up two and Coalition down four) and Morgan (One Nation down 5.5 and Coalition up four). The total right vote is at 49% in Essential, 47.5% in Morgan, 47% in YouGov and Redbridge and 46% in Newspoll. Labor’s primary vote is up 1–3 points in all five polls.
In US polling, Donald Trump’s net approval has recovered slightly from a low in late May. Democrats have a large enough margin in the generic ballot to overcome Republican gerrymandering.
YouGov poll: One Nation gains, Coalition slumps
A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted June 23–30 from a sample presumably about 1,500, gave One Nation 30% of the primary vote (up two since the mid-June YouGov poll to a new high), Labor 29% (up three), the Coalition 17% (down four to a new low), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 11% (down one). Of the Others, independents had 6% and others 5%.
By respondent preferences, Labor led both One Nation and the Coalition by 54–46, a two-point gain for Labor against both One Nation and the Coalition.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved four points to -21 (57% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied). He has improved five points from a late May low. Angus Taylor’s net approval was down one point to -11 (47% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied).
Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 44–35 (43–38 previously). He led Pauline Hanson by 49–40 (48–41 previously).
Compared with three months ago, 39% said they were worse off financially and just 9% better off. On house prices, 49% wanted them to fall, 17% rise and 26% stay the same.
If Albanese were to step down as PM, 26% of Labor voters supported Jim Chalmers replacing him, 13% Tanya Plibersek, 5% Richard Marles, 5% Tony Burke and 4% Mark Butler, with 47% unsure.
Essential poll
A national Essential poll, conducted June 24–28 from a sample of 1,017, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up one since the late May Essential poll), One Nation 26% (down two), the Coalition 23% (steady), the Greens 10% (down one), all Others 5% (steady) and 5% undecided (up one).
A Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate was not provided. By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 48–46, reversing a 48–47 Labor lead in May. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led the Coalition by about 51–49.
In four of its last five monthly polls, Essential has had the Coalition ahead after preferences. The only other poll that gave the Coalition a lead was a late May Fox & Hedgehog poll (by 51–49). Essential’s polls are marked by weak respondent flows to Labor and a low Others vote.
Albanese’s net approval improved four points from a low in this poll to -13 (51% disapprove, 38% approve). In contrast to other recent polls, Taylor’s net approval was up three points to -1 (37% disapprove, 36% approve).
Asked which One Nation policies they would support, 26% selected stopping abortion after 20 weeks, 25% stopping the transition to renewables and 20% ending multiculturalism.
On climate change, 51% (down two since last November) said it’s happening and is caused by human activity, while 36% (up five) thought we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate.
On addressing climate change, 37% (up seven) said Australia is doing enough, 30% (down six) not doing enough and 21% (up one) doing too much). This is a record low for not doing enough and a record high for doing too much in a series that goes back to 2015.
On abortion, 42% (up four since November 2024) thought it should be legal in most cases, 29% (down 12) legal in all cases, 19% (up five) illegal in most cases and 9% (up two) illegal in all cases.
Morgan poll: Coalition gains from One Nation slump
A national Morgan poll, conducted June 22–28 from a sample of 1,639, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (up one since the June 15–21 Morgan poll), One Nation 26% (down 5.5), the Coalition 21.5% (up four), the Greens 13% (down 0.5) and all Others 11.5% (up one).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a two-point gain for Labor. Labor led the Coalition by 53.5–46.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by an unchanged 52.5–47.5.
Labor is probably being helped by rising consumer confidence. Morgan’s consumer confidence index was up 3.1 points last week to 75.9, the highest it has been since early March when the Iran war began. Consumer confidence had fallen to a record low of 58.8 in late March.
Trump’s ratings recover from low
Rising consumer confidence is also helping US President Donald Trump. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -17.9, up from a low of -20.2 on May 19. Currently, 57.4% disapprove and 39.6% approve.
Trump’s net approval is the lowest at this point of a presidential term since Harry Truman, with Joe Biden the next lowest at -17.2.
In the four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -10.6 on immigration, -24.0 on trade, -25.8 on the economy and -43.8 on inflation. Trump’s net approval on the economy has recovered from a low of -32.7 on May 21.
The US midterm elections will be held in four months, in early November. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the 100 senators are up for election. At 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220–215 and the Senate by 53–47.
Owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need to win the House popular vote by at least four points to have a good chance to win a House majority. In Silver’s aggregate, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.1–41.9 on the generic ballot. The current 6.1-point Democratic margin is down from a peak of 7.1 points on June 1.
Of the 35 Senate seats up for election, Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13. However, only two Republican-held seats are considered vulnerable. To gain the four seats needed for a majority on a uniform swing, Democrats would need a double digit margin in the generic ballot.
