With the Makerfield byelection approaching, polling suggests that Andy Burnham has a lead over Reform UK’s candidate Robert Kenyon. That lead, it appears, is stronger among women than men. Among women, Burnham’s lead stretches to 17 points, while among men is just two points.
One factor behind this may be the social media campaign being run by Reform. Analysis suggests that the party’s posts are targeted at (and seen more often by) men. And among voters aged 25 to 65, Kenyon’s campaign adverts have been seen far more often by men.
This is not surprising – research shows that men consume more political news and media than women, partially due to a “child penalty”, which can reduce the amount of news that mothers consume. As such, Reform’s campaign may be cutting through to more men.
However, the women of Makerfield do seem to have noticed one key claim about Kenyon – and it’s not something they view favourably. His old social media posts included a number of sexually explicit comments, as well as sexist language. This included a post in which he described women who had an abortion as “cowardly”.
On a special edition of the BBC’s Question Time programme recorded in Makerfield, one female audience member stated: “I’d rather have a career politician than a plumber who’s a sexist.”
Previous research shows that holding sexist attitudes and voting for a rightwing party in the UK are associated. This is relevant to understanding not just women’s choices when it comes to the byelection, but also men’s. Men who do not hold sexist attitudes will also be unlikely to lend their support to Reform.
But it’s important not to give too much weight to Reform’s choice of candidate or social media campaign as the causes of the gender differences seen in this recent polling. It is well understood that women are now less likely to vote for rightwing parties than men. This is especially the case when it comes to populist or far-right parties.
Women are more likely to vote for leftwing parties than men, a pattern that played out in the UK’s 2024 general election. The polling in Makerfield is consistent with this trend.
Yet the women of Makerfield, the choice of candidates by both parties, and Kenyon’s controversial comments are likely to play an important role in support for Labour at the byelection. Labour and Burnham, currently mayor of Greater Manchester, must consolidate the left vote in the constituency, and make sure their voters turn out on the day. Reform’s choice of Kenyon as its candidate may just help them to do this.
A candidate who has displayed controversial attitudes about women and issues around gender may make women who favour a third party, such as the Green party, more likely to prioritise keeping Reform out. They may see a vote for Labour as the best way to do this.
How might anger affect the vote?
One problem for Labour nationally is that the left vote has fragmented even further since 2024, with support increasing for the Green party. Support for the Greens among younger, educated women is now particularly strong.
While the Greens won only 4% of the vote in Makerfield at the last general election, if this were to increase it could be a real issue for Labour. This is not because the Greens are a threat to win the constituency, but because they could take support away from Burnham.
In the last byelection in Greater Manchester – Gorton and Denton – there were competing claims from Labour and the Greens about who was best placed to keep Reform out. Then, Reform had fielded a different candidate with controversial attitudes to gender issues. This may have contributed to a Green win, with late-deciding women potentially playing a role in the result.
In Makerfield, unlike in Gorton and Denton, it is much more obvious that women should consolidate behind Labour if they want to keep out a controversial Reform candidate. This may help Labour and bring back women who have voted (or have considered voting) Green.
On top of this, Reform’s decision to stick with a candidate with attitudes that seemed to make women in the Question Time audience visibly angry may motivate women to turn out and vote.
This could also spill over into households. It’s well established that when one person in a household votes, others in that household are more likely to do so. This goes alongside any influence Labour-voting women might have on the voting choices of those around them.
Of course, this influence could also work against Labour. My own research has shown that, in the UK, people who discussed politics with a Labour or a Liberal Democrat supporter were less likely to go on to vote Remain. And those who discussed politics with a Ukip backer were more likely to vote Leave.
The contest in Makerfield may be decided in part by how well Labour can persuade leftwing voters, who are disproportionately women, to vote for Burnham to keep out a controversial Reform candidate. Then the question will be whether these women can also mobilise those around them to do the same.
