The clock is ticking on the Iran peace deal. A memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US is due to be signed in Geneva on June 19, allowing for a 60-day ceasefire extension and the opening of the strategically vital waterway, the Strait of Hormuz. But key questions remain unresolved that could yet scupper the agreement.
For Washington and Tehran, the memorandum also includes Lebanon. Iran has made the signing of the deal contingent on an Israeli undertaking to withdraw from the territories it has occupied in southern Lebanon during the war. And the US president, Donald Trump, has demanded that the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, behave “more responsibly in Lebanon”.
But Israel’s bombing of south Lebanon and Beirut continues, the Israeli military presence in Lebanon remains and Israel’s leaders remain adamant they will not withdraw. So where does Israel feature in this deal and how will it respond?
The terms of the deal remain confidential, and will only be revealed after the signing has taken place. But reports suggest that the US will be responsible for constraining Israeli military activity in Lebanon. Iran, meanwhile, appears to see the two states as one adversary in this war.
Over the past year, questions about the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu have regularly been asked, highlighting the divergent approaches to Iran and the broader security environment of the Middle East taken by the two states. The Israeli strike on Hamas targets in the Qatari capital of Doha in the summer of 2025 provoked much anger, prompting the White House to release an image of Netanyahu on the phone with the emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, while Donald Trump looked on, clearly unimpressed.
Leaked comments during the war with Iran have highlighted the extent of frustration felt by Trump towards Netanyahu. Speaking with Axios, a US media outlet, on June 14, Trump fumed: “Why did BB have to do a fucking attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know he has no fucking judgement. I let him know that.” Trump later warned Israel on Truth Social not to “blow it”.
Two weeks earlier, Trump and Netanyahu had an angry phone call about Israel’s threats to resume air strikes. In a conversation reported by Axios, Trump shouted: “What the fuck are you doing? You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everyone hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this”.
Divergent strategies
The tensions between the two men also reflect considerable strategic divisions emerging between Israel and the US. The two countries have long been close diplomatic partners, with shared strategic and ideological visions for the future of the Middle East. Support for Israel has been a cornerstone of domestic US politics alongside US foreign policy – prompting widespread reflection on the strategic merits of such an approach.
An article by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, American political scientists, later turned into a book, engaged with the topic, questioning if the US-Israeli relationship was a consequence of “love or the lobby”, with a clear reference to the pressure exerted on US politicians by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee – widely regarded as one of the most powerful lobbying groups in America with considerable influence on US policy.
Read more:
What is the Israel lobby – and why is it so anxious?
Yet the strategic goals of the two states now appear to be in direct conflict. For the US, ensuring that the memorandum of understanding is signed and a final deal is reached with Iran is of paramount importance. For Israel, where public opinion is largely in favour of the war with Iran as well as conflict with Hezbollah, the memorandum signals capitulation and provoked deep anger.
Many in Israel are calling on the government to reject the deal. One of Netanyahu’s coalition members, finance minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, declared that Israel must not accept the US ceasefire.
In an effort to distance Israel from the US, Ben-Gvir declared that “a sovereign state is not a contractor for any superpower. It is not bound by agreements that block its ability to protect its people”. He argued that Israel “must continue to demolish the houses in southern Lebanon … We must continue to be independent.”
Israel Katz, Israel’s defence minister, vowed that Israeli military will remain in southern Lebanon promising to retaliate if Iran hits Israel in support of Lebanon.
AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo
Netanyahu also expressed defiance. In a televised press conference on June 15, he declared that Israel “established deep security zones around the state of Israel. We did this in Gaza, in Lebanon and in Syria … And I want to make it clear: we will remain in these security zones … to protect our country.” This appears to be in direct contradiction of the terms of the memorandum of understanding and raises serious questions about the relationship between both Trump and Netanyahu and the US and Israel.
It appears that the relationship is now at a crossroads. Will Trump exert pressure on Netanyahu to stop the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon and to withdraw from the country, or will he turn a blind eye to Israeli military actions, risking the deal that he so desperately wants? If the US president insists on an Israeli withdrawal, will Netanyahu comply? And what does this mean for either man’s electoral chances in the autumn, with Netanyahu facing a general election by October and Trump facing mid-term elections in early November?
With the two supposed allies each clearly at loggerheads over what their countries – and perhaps more importantly, they themselves – want, can the deal survive? And what does this mean for Israel’s relationship with the US? The clock is ticking.
