Since the May 12 federal budget, every poll has had One Nation gaining when measured against the last issue of that poll. While they’re still leading on primary votes in the YouGov and Morgan polls, One Nation was down one point in YouGov and steady in Morgan.
Polls since the budget also had continuing drops for Labor. Labor’s support was steady in YouGov and up two points in Morgan, with the overall vote for One Nation and the Coalition steady at 49% in YouGov and down 0.5 points to 46.5% in Morgan.
This article also includes Resolve polls from Victoria (Labor struggling) and Queensland (One Nation surging at Labor’s expense) and a DemosAU WA poll (Labor still ahead but down).
YouGov poll
A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted June 9–16 from a sample of 1,492, gave One Nation 28% of the primary vote (down one since the late May YouGov poll), Labor 26% (steady), the Coalition 21% (up one), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 12% (steady).
By respondent preferences, Labor led both One Nation and the Coalition by 52–48, a 0.5-point gain for One Nation vs Labor and a 0.5-point gain for Labor vs the Coalition.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up one point to a still dismal -25, with 60% dissatisfied and 35% satisfied. Angus Taylor’s net approval slumped five points to -10 (47% dissatisfied, 37% satisfied). Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 43–38 (41–39 previously). He led Pauline Hanson by 48–41 (47–41 previously).
On One Nation, 50% thought it was ready to govern well now and 33% thought they will be ready to govern by the next election.
One Nation has proposed scrapping $1.3 billion in taxpayer funding for the ABC and moving it to a subscription model. Overall, respondents supported this by 55–45. Of the 55% who supported scrapping taxpayer funding, just 7% said they would pay for the ABC.
Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted June 8–14 from a sample of 1,583, gave One Nation 29.5% of the primary vote (steady since the June 1–7 Morgan poll), Labor 28% (up two), the Coalition 17% (down 0.5), the Greens 14% (down 1.5) and all Others 11.5% (steady).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a 0.5-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 54.5–45.5, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 54.5–45.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.
Further Resolve questions
I wrote about the June Resolve poll for Nine newspapers on Monday. In further questions, Treasurer Jim Chalmers had a net approval of -5 (39% bad, 34% good). His net approval is up one point since May, but down 12 points since the March 2025 budget.
Views of the budget have dropped since May, with 23% (down one) saying it was good for “me and my household”, 29% (down one) good for the country as a whole, 29% (down two) good for the health of the economy, 23% (down two) good for older people and 28% (down five) good for younger people.
By 44–24, respondents expected the economy to get worse rather than better in the next year, with more pessimism for shorter time horizons. By 33–29, they expected the economy to get better in the next five years.
Victorian Resolve poll: One Nation still gaining
The Victorian state election is in late November. A Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the federal May and June Resolve polls from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor 26% of the primary vote (down one since the April Resolve poll), the Coalition 26% (down three), One Nation 24% (up three), the Greens 12% (up two), independents 5% (down two) and others 7% (up one).
Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls, but analyst Kevin Bonham estimated a Coalition lead over Labor of about 52–48.
The Age said One Nation had 20% of the primary vote in May and 28% in June, but the small monthly samples can be volatile. In two other recent Victorian polls, Labor trailed in third behind One Nation and the Coalition.
Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s net likeability was down to -35, returning to where it was at the start of this year. Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s net likeability was down three points to +15. Wilson led Allan as preferred premier by an unchanged 39–20.
By 61–25, respondents did not think Labor and Allan deserved a fourth term in government. By 46–35, they thought the Liberals and Wilson were capable of governing the state effectively.
In the lead-up to the election, Resolve will double its monthly Victorian samples, allowing The Age to report poll results every month.
Queensland Resolve poll: One Nation surges at Labor’s expense
A Queensland state Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted with the federal May and June Resolve polls from a sample of 868, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 30% of the primary vote (steady since April), Labor 24% (down four), One Nation 24% (up seven), the Greens 10% (down one), independents 5% (down five) and others 6% (up two).
No two-party estimate was provided, but Bonham estimated an LNP lead over Labor of about 56–44. A recent DemosAU Queensland poll gave the LNP a 58–42 lead over Labor.
LNP Premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability was down three points to +16. Labor leader Steven Miles slid six points to -11, his worst net likeability since 2024, when he was premier before losing the October 2024 election.
Crisafulli led as preferred premier by a blowout 44–20 (42–26 previously). This is Crisafulli’s biggest lead in Resolve’s Queensland polls that go back to 2022.
WA DemosAU poll: Labor down but still ahead
A Western Australian DemosAU poll, conducted May 29 to June 11 from a sample of 1,015, gave Labor 33% of the primary vote (down five since the February DemosAU poll), the Liberals 23% (up two), the Nationals 3% (down one), One Nation 18% (up one), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 11% (up two).
After preferences, Labor led the Liberals by 53–47, a four-point gain for the Liberals.
Labor Premier Roger Cook’s net positive score was unchanged at +6 (35% positive, 29% negative). Liberal leader Basil Zempilas was also unchanged at -3 (34% negative, 31% positive). One Nation WA leader Rod Caddies was up five points to -12 (30% negative, 18% positive). Greens WA leader Brad Pettitt was down four points to -18 (31% negative, 13% positive).
Cook led Zempilas as preferred premier by 44–33 (previously 43–30). By 43–36, respondents thought WA was headed in the wrong direction.(43–39 previously).
