In the event, the SNP did not win the overall majority First Minister John Swinney sought in the 2026 Scottish election. However, between them the SNP and the Greens won 73 seats, 57% of all MSPs. It is the largest ever contingent of pro-independence MSPs at Holyrood.
Yet between them the two parties won just 41% of the regional list vote. The avowed aim of the parliament’s mixed-member proportional electoral system is to produce a distribution of seats proportional to each party’s share of the list vote. However, as the table below shows, this is not the first time disproportionality has benefited the party of government and its potential allies. But it is the biggest discrepancy yet – even greater than that which favoured the Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition at the first two Holyrood elections.
Professor John Curtice, CC BY
Why was the outcome so disproportional? The reason lies primarily in the outcome in the constituencies. The first-past-the-post system used to elect constituency MSPs reflects a party’s standing relative to its competitors rather than simply the share of the vote it has won. Despite winning a relatively modest 38% of the constituency vote across Scotland, the SNP had a 19-point lead over its nearest rival, Labour. Given also that SNP support is geographically relatively evenly spread, such a gap was inevitably going to mean the party would win the vast bulk of the constituency seats. Only those where one of its opponents was especially strong locally were likely to avoid its grasp.
In the event, the SNP won 57 constituencies. In contrast, if in every constituency the rises and falls in each party’s support had matched exactly what happened across Scotland as a whole, the SNP would have won four more, 61 seats. Geographical variation in the parties’ performances did reduce the SNP tally somewhat – though in the Highlands & Islands the SNP found itself compensated for its resultant net loss of one seat in the allocation of list seats, leaving the party with its final total of 58 seats. Overall, the geographical variation in party performance resulted in the SNP being three seats down on what would otherwise have happened.
Two of these losses were to the Greens – one in Edinburgh and one in Glasgow. As it happened, however, the resultant reduction in the SNP’s representation in Edinburgh paved the way for the Greens to pick up a regional top-up seat on which they would otherwise have narrowly lost out. Only the second extra SNP loss in the capital (to the Liberal Democrats) served to reduce the tally of pro-independence MSPs. However, the Green success in Glasgow Southside enabled Labour to gain a top-up seat and thus did reduce the pro-independence tally by another seat.
SNP share of list vote down
In short, the gains and losses of constituency seats that arose as a consequence of locally exceptional party performance reduced the total tally of pro-independence MSPs by two – and thus helped to reduce the scale of the disproportionality in favour of pro-independence MSPs. Nevertheless, the large tally of pro-independence MSPs was wholly unsurprising given the party’s tallies on the constituency vote.
At the same time, however, the SNP’s share of the regional list vote was a record 11 points below that in the constituencies. This further served to increase the pro-independence disproportionality.
The table below shows what would have happened if all the seats in each of the eight regions had been distributed by proportional representation. In effect it shows what would have happened if the electoral system was achieving its stated aim. The SNP would have won 18 fewer seats, scattered across every region apart from Highlands & Islands. In contrast, the over-representation enjoyed by the SNP in 2021 was just four seats. The combined tally of SNP and Green seats would have been only 60, 13 down on their actual total and five short of a majority.
Professor John Curtice, CC BY
Holyrood’s electoral system was devised by Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the Scottish Constitutional Convention. Initially it served their interests well. However, after landing the SNP a majority in 2011 on just 44% of the vote, it has now, on an even lower tally, given the SNP and the Greens the largest ever majority of pro-independence MSPs. The first law of politics is the law of unintended consequences.
A version of this article is available as part of the Scottish Election Analysis 2026.
