A 12-year-old government with a premier under siege. An untried opposition that has weathered multiple scandals and leadership changes. And a right-wing populist party on the march among disaffected voters. With all this in play, Victoria’s November state election is shaping up to be one of the most significant in recent memory.
And while it is usually accepted wisdom that state elections are fought on state issues, the rise of One Nation at the expense of the two major parties could offer an insight into what is happening on a federal level.
Challenge of a fourth term
At first glance, this election looks like a familiar story of a long-term government, a restless electorate, and an opposition waiting for its moment. Labor has been in office in Victoria for 12 years, and the weight of that tenure is showing.
Labor has dominated Victorian politics for over two decades, winning six of the last seven elections. Former Coalition PM John Howard dubbed Victoria the “Massachusetts of Australia” in reference to the Victorian Labor’s persistent success. It is widely regarded as the most progressive state in the country, particularly in city seats.
Since returning to office in 2014, it has faced few major electoral threats from the opposition. At the 2022 election, the government – at the time led by Daniel Andrews – was re-elected with 56 of the 88 seats in the lower house.
However, since 2024, Labor has lost its lead in the two-party preferred vote. Recent polls suggest the government is facing the prospect of electoral defeat.
Labor has fallen behind the Coalition and One Nation on primary votes, while Premier Jacinta Allan’s net approval was –37. Allan’s own seat of Bendigo East is likely also to be one to watch in a hotly contested battle against Nationals candidate Andrew Lethlean.
In this context, there has also been frequent speculation over Allan’s leadership and campaigns targeting the premier personally. Allan has managed to hold on to the position of party leader despite recurring rumours of impending spills. However, the underlying anxiety within Labor has not gone away.
Last week, the secretary of the Victorian Trades Hall Luke Hilakari criticised Labor MPs for not campaigning enough in their constituencies to combat the rise of One Nation. Hilakari urged MPs to “work their arse off” in the lead up to the election or to expect the withdrawal of union campaigning support in their electorates.
This reveals the level of concern in the union movement at the threat One Nation poses at the next election. Hilakari told Patricia Karvalas on ABC’s Afternoon Briefing they anticipate One Nation to pick up between 20 and 25 seats in November.
A weakened opposition
Heading into an election with an unpopular Labor government seeking a fourth term would normally pave the way for a Coalition victory.
However, the Coalition only holds 28 seats, a far cry from the 45 required to form government. Although the Nationals gained ground at the last state election, the Liberal Party went backwards, losing seats to Labor in the suburbs and regions. The years since have been a turbulent period for the opposition in Victoria, with ideological divisions, factional in-fighting and three changes in leadership.
The current leader, Jess Wilson, is a moderate who has managed to maintain relative party unity since stepping into the role in November last year. Wilson has kept the party focused on sore points for the Allan government, such as crime levels, growing state debt and accusations of fraud and corruption on some of the state’s’ most significant infrastructure projects. Along with cost of living, these issues have dominated the campaign so far.
Although there have been some glimpses of successful campaigning communications, it remains unclear if it will be enough to win a majority Liberal-National Coalition government.
Australia’s evolving party landscape
The accepted wisdom has been that Australian voters treat state and federal elections as distinct contests. Although the issues dominating Victorian politics at the moment are largely state issues, the election is likely to be watched closely across the country because of what it reveals about the changing party system in Australia.
Both traditional parties of government are confronted with a declining vote share and the unpredictability of a fragmented electorate. The Liberals are facing challenges on both sides from One Nation and independents. Labor is being challenged by the Greens in the inner city, while One Nation and the Liberals pose a threat in the suburbs and regions.
There is no clear roadmap for the parties in navigating the path to government in a fragmenting party system. Currently, One Nation only holds one seat in the Victorian upper house, but given its current poll numbers, it seems likely to have a significant presence in the next parliament.
If a hung parliament is returned, One Nation may be potentially decisive in determining who forms the next Victorian government.
Whatever the results, November will reveal important insights into the trajectory of Australian party politics: whether the major parties can adapt to a fragmenting landscape, and whether minor parties like One Nation have the organisational capacity to sustain their rapid rise.
