In two federal polls that were partly taken after Pauline Hanson’s June 17 National Press Club address, One Nation’s surge continued, gaining two points on primary votes in both the DemosAU and Morgan polls, to reach 30% and 31.5% respectively.
Owing to a five-point slump for the Coalition, the DemosAU poll was better for Labor with the combined One Nation/Coalition vote down three points to 48%. But in Morgan the right vote was up 2.5 points to 49%, and Labor only led One Nation by 51–49 after preferences.
In the United Kingdom, Labour’s Andy Burnham is set to become prime minister after his thumping byelection victory last Thursday.
The NSW election is in March 2027. A DemosAU poll has One Nation overtaking the Coalition to be second on primary votes behind Labor.
DemosAU poll
A national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted June 16–18 from a sample of 1,497, gave One Nation 30% of the primary vote (up two since the May post-budget DemosAU poll), Labor 27% (up one), the Coalition 18% (down five), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 12% (up two).
No two-party estimate was provided, but seat ranges gave Labor 71–81 of the 150 House of Representatives seats (previously 65–74), One Nation 54–63 (previously 47–58), the Coalition 4–11 (18–28), the Greens 0–4 (1–5) and others 4–8 (2–6).
Owing to the three-point drop in the combined One Nation/Coalition vote to 48%, Labor’s position has improved to where it would form government with a reasonable chance of a majority (76 seats). In the May poll, One Nation and the Coalition could have had a combined majority.
Anthony Albanese’s net positive score was down three points to -23 (49% negative, 26% positive). But Angus Taylor’s was down seven points to -6 (28% negative, 22% positive) and Hanson’s was down six points to -3 (40% negative, 37% positive). In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 35% (up one), Hanson 28% (up one) and Taylor 19% (down four).
Net approval of ending negative gearing was down four points to +1 (32% approve, 31% disapprove). On scrapping the capital gains tax discount, it was down three points to -4 (33–29 disapprove). On a minimum 30% tax rate on family trusts, it was down ten points to -17 (41–24 disapprove).
Morgan poll and more from Resolve
A national Morgan poll, conducted June 15–21 from a sample of 1,575, gave One Nation 31.5% of the primary vote (up two since the June 8–14 Morgan poll), Labor 27% (down one), the Coalition 17.5% (up 0.5), the Greens 13.5% (down 0.5) and all Others 10.5% (down one).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by just 51–49, a two-point gain for One Nation. Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5, a two-point gain for the Coalition.
I previously covered the mid-June national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. In an additional question, by 54–11 respondents supported the objective of bringing house prices down.
No change to state House numbers at next election
The electoral commission will determine in July how many seats each state and territory has in the House of Representatives at the next election. ABC election analyst Antony Green said last Thursday that, based on December 2025 population estimates released that day, there will be no change in state House numbers.
New South Wales will have 46 of the 150 House seats, Victoria 38, Queensland 30, Western Australia 16, South Australia ten, Tasmania five, the ACT three and the NT two.
Queensland’s quotient was 30.42 seats, just short of the 30.5 that would have given them a 31st seat. On the basis of population, Tasmania should only have three seats, but gets five as this is the minimum for all states.
While there is no change in state representation, federal electorate redistributions will be needed in Tasmania, the ACT, SA and Queensland as it’s been at least seven years since the last redistribution of these states.
UK: Labour’s Burnham set to be next PM after thumping win
At last Thursday’s UK parliamentary byelection for Makerfield, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham (Labour’s candidate) defeated the populist right Reform by 54.8–34.5 with 6.8% for Restore (another populist right party). Labour defeated Reform in Makerfield in 2024 by 45.2–31.8.
Labour PM Keir Starmer announced on Monday he would resign once a new Labour leader was chosen. With nobody else likely to obtain the 81 required signatures from Labour MPs, Burnham is set to become the next UK PM on July 16 or 17.
Reform has been leading Labour in UK national polls since April 2025. Labour had dismal results at May 7 Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local elections.
I covered this byelection for The Poll Bludger. I also covered two other UK byelections, a US federal special election in California and other international elections.
NSW DemosAU poll: One Nation surges ahead of Coalition
The New South Wales election is in March 2027. A DemosAU and Premier National poll, conducted June 15–18 from a sample of 1,038, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (down two since February), One Nation 27% (up six), the Coalition 20% (down three), the Greens 13% (down two) and all Others 8% (up one).
No two-party estimate was provided, but Labor would be far ahead given the split in the right vote and NSW’s optional preferential voting.
In the upper house, Labor had 30%, One Nation 27%, the Coalition 20%, the Greens 13% and nobody else more than 1%. Half of the 42 upper house seats will be up for election using statewide proportional representation with preferences.
